How Predictable Are West African Monsoon Rains Years in Advance?

Elsa Mohino · portrait · 1:58

Resources

Video ID

elsa-mohino

Video

https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/elsa-mohino/video.mp4

Poster

https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/elsa-mohino/poster.jpg

Document

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  "content": {
    "title": "How Predictable Are West African Monsoon Rains Years in Advance?",
    "author": "Elsa Mohino",
    "description": "Elsa Mohino asks whether the rains that feed the Sahel can be foreseen not days but years ahead. In this short she traces the monsoon's memory to the slow moods of the oceans, showing how Atlantic and Pacific temperature patterns load the dice for wet and dry decades, and what skilful decadal prediction would mean for farming and water planning across West Africa.",
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        "name": "About",
        "start": 7.5
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      {
        "name": "Findings",
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    "metadata": {
      "inANutshell": {
        "generatedByAi": true,
        "keyTakeaway": "Slow ocean temperature patterns give West African monsoon rainfall real predictability on decadal horizons.",
        "summary": "Sahel rainfall swings between wet and dry decades, with consequences from harvests to migration. Those swings are not pure chance: they follow slow patterns of Atlantic and Pacific surface temperature. Reading these ocean moods makes rainfall partially predictable years ahead, a horizon that matters for infrastructure and agriculture."
      },
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        "items": [
          {
            "label": "West African monsoon",
            "description": "The seasonal wind reversal that carries Atlantic moisture into the Sahel each boreal summer.",
            "start": 0
          },
          {
            "label": "Decadal prediction",
            "description": "Forecasting the climate system's evolution over the next one to ten years, between weather and climate projection.",
            "start": 33.508
          },
          {
            "label": "Sea surface temperature modes",
            "description": "Recurring ocean warmth patterns, like Atlantic variability, that steer rainfall far away.",
            "start": 72.574
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      "researchField": {
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        "sections": [
          {
            "title": "Climate variability",
            "description": "How the climate system fluctuates naturally on interannual to decadal timescales."
          },
          {
            "title": "Monsoon dynamics",
            "description": "The physics of seasonal circulations that deliver most of the tropics' rain."
          }
        ]
      },
      "underlyingPublication": {
        "items": [
          {
            "title": "Decadal predictability of Sahel rainfall from ocean temperature modes",
            "authors": ["Elsa Mohino"],
            "journal": "Climate Dynamics",
            "abstract": "Initialised decadal hindcasts show skilful prediction of Sahel rainfall anomalies tied to Atlantic and Pacific surface temperature variability.",
            "url": "https://doi.org/10.5555/lt-demo.elsa-mohino"
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