Can We Blame Climate Change for a Single Heatwave?

Isabel Gelfert · portrait · 1:34

Resources

Video ID

isabel-gelfert

Video

https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/isabel-gelfert/video.mp4

Poster

https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/isabel-gelfert/poster.jpg

Subtitles · English

https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/isabel-gelfert/en.vtt

Document

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  "content": {
    "title": "Can We Blame Climate Change for a Single Heatwave?",
    "author": "Isabel Gelfert",
    "description": "After every record heatwave the same question returns: was this climate change? Isabel Gelfert shows how attribution science answers it rigorously. This publication walks through simulating the world twice, once as it is and once as it might have been without emissions, and explains how comparing the two turns a philosophical question into a number a court or a ministry can use.",
    "poster": "https://demo.lt.org/videos/portrait/isabel-gelfert/poster.jpg",
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    "chapters": [
      {
        "name": "About",
        "start": 7.5
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      {
        "name": "Research",
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      {
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          {
            "start": 7.02,
            "text": "My name is Isabel Gelfert, and I am a junior professor at the University of Bonn."
          },
          {
            "start": 11.3,
            "text": "Born in Limone sul Garda, I have lived in Germany since I was six years old."
          },
          {
            "start": 15.48,
            "text": "I have long been accompanied by my love of films and their social significance."
          },
          {
            "start": 19,
            "text": "Besides the films themselves, cinema advertising has always particularly fascinated me, and I am very happy that I can now conduct research in this field."
          },
          {
            "start": 27.58,
            "text": "Now that movie theaters are back in fashion, advertising has rediscovered the cinema."
          },
          {
            "start": 33.38,
            "text": "Around 300 million euros in advertising money flows into cinema advertising each year."
          },
          {
            "start": 37.9,
            "text": "In local markets, advertisers can no longer reach their target groups sufficiently through print media alone."
          },
          {
            "start": 46.54,
            "text": "Alongside radio advertising, cinema advertising has developed into a communications platform for reaching younger target groups."
          },
          {
            "start": 50.62,
            "text": "Audience research shows that around 70 percent of moviegoers are under 30 years old, and 88 percent are under 40."
          },
          {
            "start": 62.8,
            "text": "Seventy-three percent have a monthly net household income above 3,000 euros, and 78 percent attended secondary schools."
          },
          {
            "start": 69.24,
            "text": "One advantage of cinema advertising is that the advertising block in a cinema cannot be skipped. Recall is correspondingly high."
          },
          {
            "start": 77.74,
            "text": "Ninety-one percent of moviegoers remember the advertisement shown before the feature film."
          },
          {
            "start": 82.22,
            "text": "Sixty-four percent remember the brands or clients shown in the advertising section. Cinema advertising therefore has a major impact."
          }
        ]
      },
      "inANutshell": {
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        "keyTakeaway": "Attribution science quantifies how much more likely and more intense emissions made a specific extreme event.",
        "summary": "Extreme event attribution compares the real climate with counterfactual simulations of a world without human emissions. The ratio of probabilities gives a concrete statement: this heatwave was made, say, five times more likely and two degrees hotter. These numbers now inform adaptation planning, loss-and-damage debates, and climate litigation."
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            "description": "A simulated world without human emissions, the baseline against which reality is compared.",
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            "label": "Probability ratio",
            "description": "How many times more likely an event became; the core quantity of attribution.",
            "start": 28.608
          },
          {
            "label": "Event attribution",
            "description": "The rapid scientific assessment of individual extremes, often published while memory is fresh.",
            "start": 53.308
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      "researchField": {
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        "sections": [
          {
            "title": "Climate extremes",
            "description": "The statistics and physics of the rarest, most damaging weather events."
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            "title": "Detection and attribution",
            "description": "Separating human influence from natural variability in observed changes."
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      "underlyingPublication": {
        "items": [
          {
            "title": "Rapid attribution of continental heatwaves to anthropogenic forcing",
            "authors": ["Isabel Gelfert"],
            "journal": "Environmental Research Letters",
            "abstract": "A counterfactual ensemble framework quantifies probability and intensity changes of recent European heatwaves.",
            "url": "https://doi.org/10.5555/lt-demo.isabel-gelfert"
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